Predicting the odds for the West Virginia Derby is challenging

Aug 5, 2023

CHESTER — In 2009, when Mine That Bird became the only Grade I Kentucky Derby winner to compete in the West Virginia Derby — then a Grade II event — he was expected to be the heavy favorite and thus carried the lowest odds in the morning line in the track program.

The Derby drew a field of six that year. It was close, but Big Drama, who ultimately finished second, was dispatched as the slight favorite over Mine That Bird, who finished third. Soul Warrior won the race by a neck as the 23-1 co-fourth choice in the wagering.

There are misconceptions about the morning line, one of which is that the individual — or computer program in some instances — believes the horse with the lowest odds will win. The morning line is designed to reflect an only an opinion on what the final odds for each horse will be, and that’s not easy to accomplish.

The morning line in many cases is set days before the actual races, so scratches, track conditions and jockey changes the day of the race can greatly affect it. This year’s Grade III $500,000 West Virginia Derby, to be run Sunday attracted a field of 12, and determining a favorite wasn’t an easy task. The case was the same with the Grade III $200,000 West Virginia Governor’s Stakes.

The morning-line odds for horses viewed as serious contenders in the Derby are as follows: Raise Cain (3-1), Red Route One (7-2), Tapit’s Conquest (4-1), One in Vermillion (4-1), Lord Miles (6-1) and West Coast Cowboy (10-1). The numbers reflect the competitive nature of this year’s race.

“I’m a purist,” said Mark Patterson, assistant racing secretary, morning-line maker and television analyst at Mountaineer. “I’m only trying to determine what the public will do when it bets on a race. But it can be very challenging.”

Patterson, who has set morning lines for more than 40,000 races in his career, said with the Derby and other major races for 3-year-olds, many bettors and casual fans know the horses, who they raced against, and even whether they overcame a track bias in a race. He said in this year’s West Virginia Derby there are many horses that didn’t regularly compete against each other, and that made it more difficult.

“In a race like the Derby you assume the (betting) money will be sophisticated,” Patterson said. “You assume they have some level of study and awareness. But the form this year is so very different looking. There really is no common measuring stick.”

The Grade III Indiana Derby winner has won three of the last six editions of the West Virginia Derby. Morning-line favorite Raise Cain is the only entrant to have raced this year in the Indiana Derby, and he finished second by a nose to Verifying after dueling with that foe to the finish.

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